Publications

This coming Monday will see the start of COP29 – formally the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in Baku, Azerbaijan. The edition is nicknamed “the finance COP” and is important on more than one account, not least as Trump's victory likely leads to a change of course for the US on climate commitment. The volume and structure of the finance mobilised to support developing countries to transition to low-emission and climate-resilient economies tops the agenda.

The implementation of the new banking package (or Capital Requirements Directive package) that adopts the final parts of the international Basel 3 financial regulation is underway in the European Union. The European Banking Authority (EBA) along with the other European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs) is mandated to develop technical standards that provide the framework to help financial institutions comply with the new regulatory rules. Key among these standards is the novel guidance on ESG risks which is expected to be finalised by the EBA in the coming months. This is an opportune moment to address weaknesses in banks’ risk management practices, particularly regarding the underestimation of stranded asset risks, a missing angle in current policy debates.  

The European Commission is due to deliver a Vision for Agriculture and Food, within the first 100 days of its new mandate. Feeding into this work, the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of Agriculture (SDFA) published its report “A shared prospect for farming and food in Europe" in September. The spending under the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) and its alignment with the climate goals agreed at the EU level will be central to the next steps.  

The Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) will audition the European Commissioner-designates in early November. The hearings are a crucial moment to seek commitment from the EU’s next executive team on the priorities for the coming five years and how they will delivered – including on the urgent issue of investment in the climate transition.

Europe’s local authorities have a crucial role to play in meeting the EU’s objective for climate neutrality in 2050 and the critical milestones for emission reductions in 2030. They manage important building stocks and transport networks, develop climate strategies, action and investment plans, while engaging stakeholders and citizens in the climate transition. Turning climate policy ambition into reality, local authorities are responsible for implementing a lot of EU’s Green Deal legislative measures. The EU’s high-profile Mission for 100 Climate Neutral and Smart Cities by 2030 recognises this central role with a pledge for leading cities to trace a fast track towards a climate neutral urban future for others to follow. 

As we return from the summer break, we begin this new European Union mandate with a sharp sense of urgency. Mario Draghi’s report on European competitiveness has sounded the alarm – the EU’s economic health is deteriorating, and immediate intervention is needed to prevent a ‘slow agony.’ Indeed, the EU suffers from a range of critical conditions – challenges which the newly-announced College of Commissioners-elect, will need to speak to in the Hearings to come. A fragmented Single Market is restricting growth, international competition weakens key industries, and decarbonisation efforts are lagging, as highlighted by the European Climate Neutrality Observatory. These issues demand a swift response. 

Climate adaptation, preparedness and solidarity features prominently in the Political Guidelines for the new EU mandate, unveiled by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in July. And with good reason: infrastructures, access to water, food production, life in European cities - to name but a few - are increasingly impacted by the effects of climate change. Europe urgently needs to prepare better for the impact of climate change, was the message in the European Climate Risk Assessment published by the European Environment Agency earlier this year.

This autumn’s busy negotiation agendas, offer a window of opportunity to move the reform of the international climate finance architecture (IFA) up one level. This acceleration is urgent if we want to keep pace with the dramatic change in scale needed to finance the climate transition.  In 2023, developed countries announced that they had - for the first time since 2009 - achieved their USD 100bn/year climate finance target to support climate action in developing countries. Just two years later, this target is already obsolete, with needs for emerging and developing economies (excluding China) estimated at around USD 2.4 trillion per year by 2030. 

The recent election campaign in France didn’t give priority to the climate and environment. However, taking climate action is still widely supported by the French voters and most decision-makers. But a mandate to act is not enough. To make up for the current shortfall in climate investment, we need a solid consensus on the financial resources to be deployed to the climate transition in the long term. Today, these resources come partly from public budgets. And it is not a secret that the public contribution probably will have to increase in the future.

Ursula Von der Leyen’s competitiveness agenda is grabbing headlines - but the hard work of climate implementation and investment is only just beginning. In this blog, Ciaran Humphreys and Dorthe Nielsen outline the challenges this era of implementation poses, and how to align climate ambition with the President’s economic vision.  Ursula Von der Leyen has been re-elected as Commission President – and by a wider margin than expected. Before the vote, she set out her political priorities for the next EU mandate. Her vision focused on themes of security, economic competitiveness, and enlargement – unsurprisingly so at a time when the EU is increasingly concerned about its place in the world. 

Following the European elections on June 9, the EU is adapting to a new, more conservative, political reality. Yet despite changing political tides, a new EU leadership will still need to find a credible answer to how the continent is to reach climate neutrality by 2050. To understand how to get there, we need a clear understanding of the progress already made. This is where the European Climate Neutrality Observatory (ECNO) comes in.

La transition vers une France décarbonée n’est pas un chemin facile, et requiert des ménages une implication et des investissements à court terme. Cela peut nourrir un rejet de ces politiques. Face à la difficulté, faut-il faire machine arrière ou chercher une voie de passage suscitant une plus large adhésion ? Pour Benoît Leguet d'I4CE, c’est ce qui se joue dans la campagne pour les élections législatives, avec des partis qui font des propositions pour aider les classes moyennes et populaires à faire la transition, et d’autres qui sont tentés, en l’assumant ou non, de rejeter toute politique associée de près ou de loin au climat. Disons-le d’emblée : la deuxième voie est une impasse, dans laquelle les partis ne doivent pas s’engager.

Tense climate negotiations just ended in Bonn with limited progress on finance and the revised climate commitments under the Paris Agreement. During the opening ceremony of the sixtieth sessions of the subsidiary bodies (SB 60) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Simon Stiell –Executive Secretary– highlighted the need to “make serious progress on finance, the great enabler of climate action” and to aim for bolder, broader and inclusive third generation Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0) that “can serve as blueprints to propel economies and societies forward and drive more resilience”.

This weekend, citizens across the EU head to the polls. Many expect a swing to the right, in stark contrast to the “green wave” of 2019. In Brussels, leaders are looking ahead to a five-year mandate dominated by questions of security and competitiveness.  In these turbulent times, what is the future of Europe’s flagship climate package, the Green Deal? The Green Deal and the Fit for 55 package gave us the regulatory framework – but implementation requires investment. I4CE's flagship EU Climate Investment Deficit report shows that climate spending must double to make the 2030 target achievable.

Last month, the Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, Simon Stiell, stressed how important this and next year are for the achievement of the Paris Agreement and called for “a quantum leap in climate finance” ahead of the Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund. Indeed, with emissions required to peak before 2025, our window of opportunity is rapidly closing to keep 1.5°C within reach. More and better finance is urgently needed. Carbon pricing policies and their revenues are part of the tools available that can help fill the climate finance gap.

Rethinking how development can be financed to take into account the rising challenges of our time is a fastidious task, especially when thousands of experts, decision makers and practitioners want to leave their print. The outline of the new international financial architecture is being debated again this week, with more questions open for discussion than consensus on the answers. 

Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, significant strides have been made to foster the commitment of countries and financial institutions to address the climate crisis and ensure that climate risks and opportunities are considered in investments. However, with emissions required to peak before 2025, our window of opportunity is rapidly closing to keep +1.5°C within reach. Financial needs to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to address adaptation priorities are increasing rapidly in the meantime. Luis Zamarioli Santos and Diana Cárdenas Monar, from I4CE, believe that commitment must urgently translate into action, and action must bring the urgent change the world needs. Both governments and public financial institutions have a central role to play to deliver more and better finance, maximising positive impacts. This blogpost highlights some opportunities to advance in the path for a systemic transformation, involving key stakeholders with a whole-economy approach.  

A few days after the conclusion of negotiations on the European Union's carbon removals certification Framework (CRCF), I4CE helped organise the European Carbon Farming Summit in Valencia, as part of the CREDIBLE project. The high level of stakeholder participation at the summit testifies to the expectations that this new tool will contribute to a better economic valuation of carbon farming practices. The summit raised high hopes for improving and harmonising carbon measurement to certify projects, in particular through remote sensing, in a sector where there is a great deal of uncertainty. While it is vital to improve measurement and monitoring, uncertainty must not be allowed to justify inaction, and the key is to find the right balance between cost and accuracy.

A couple of months ago, COP28 called for the acceleration of efforts “towards the phase-down of unabated coal power”. Limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C requires stopping the construction of new coal power plants, that’s for sure. But it also requires retiring existing plants before the end of their lifetimes, which can be more challenging. Public development banks (PDBs) are well-positioned to help overcome barriers to coal phase-out and support countries with the transition to decarbonised electricity systems. A growing number of these banks are exploring strategies to accelerate the early retirement of coal plants. Yet these efforts may carry risks of unintended adverse impacts.

The European co-legislators have just reached an agreement on the content of the future European Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF). Negotiations were swift and fruitful, against a backdrop of a general step back in the adoption of the various Green Deal texts. While today sees environmental issues played off against farmer's livelihoods, this draft regulation brings these two elements together to create the conditions for investment in the transition of agriculture and forestry sectors. However, several details still need to be clarified to ensure that this framework actually enables effective and ambitious climate financing.