Publications

A comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the challenge of financing the low-carbon transition at the local level in France. Local authorities have a major role to play in achieving France's 2050 carbon neutrality goals, as set out in the Stratégie nationale bas-carbone (SNBC). Due to their property and responsibilities, they must make numerous climate investments, implement strategies and action plans, and deploy initiatives to mobilise local actors.  

As we return from the summer break, we begin this new European Union mandate with a sharp sense of urgency. Mario Draghi’s report on European competitiveness has sounded the alarm – the EU’s economic health is deteriorating, and immediate intervention is needed to prevent a ‘slow agony.’ Indeed, the EU suffers from a range of critical conditions – challenges which the newly-announced College of Commissioners-elect, will need to speak to in the Hearings to come. A fragmented Single Market is restricting growth, international competition weakens key industries, and decarbonisation efforts are lagging, as highlighted by the European Climate Neutrality Observatory. These issues demand a swift response. 

Improved forest management (IFM) can help mitigate climate change by increasing carbon sequestration in forests and wood products while ensuring the highest possible sustainable level of forest carbon stocks, taking into account natural disturbances. In Europe, these practices could be encouraged, especially to counterbalance the decline in forest sinks in some countries. There is an opportunity to incentivize these practices under the European Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF) regulation. Forest features and improved forest management strategies need to be properly integrated within this new scheme. This is where INFORMA comes in! 

A step forward for green industrial policy, or another stumbling block. Context. The world's largest economies are turning towards green industrial policy to support their cleantech manufacturing to accelerate their decarbonisation, competitiveness, and economic resilience. In this cleantech race, the EU has several disadvantages, including higher costs of energy and labour, a less dynamic investment environment, and the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Made in China 2025.

Climate adaptation, preparedness and solidarity features prominently in the Political Guidelines for the new EU mandate, unveiled by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in July. And with good reason: infrastructures, access to water, food production, life in European cities - to name but a few - are increasingly impacted by the effects of climate change. Europe urgently needs to prepare better for the impact of climate change, was the message in the European Climate Risk Assessment published by the European Environment Agency earlier this year.

To address the growing impacts of heatwaves on economic activities and populations, the adaptation of the building sector is becoming a new imperative. While the question of “how” to adapt has been the subject of numerous studies, the question of “how much” has so far received little attention. To move forward on this issue, we present in this report: an overview of current knowledge regarding the costs of adapting the building sector to heatwaves and the methodology we used to estimate the additional costs of adapting to heatwaves, based on available information and discussions with experts.

This autumn’s busy negotiation agendas, offer a window of opportunity to move the reform of the international climate finance architecture (IFA) up one level. This acceleration is urgent if we want to keep pace with the dramatic change in scale needed to finance the climate transition.  In 2023, developed countries announced that they had - for the first time since 2009 - achieved their USD 100bn/year climate finance target to support climate action in developing countries. Just two years later, this target is already obsolete, with needs for emerging and developing economies (excluding China) estimated at around USD 2.4 trillion per year by 2030. 

Directing more wood towards long-life products such as panels and insulation materials can help us maximise carbon sinks without increasing forest harvests. That’s because these products store carbon for a longer periods of time in form of long-lasting construction and renovation materials. But for this to happen in practice, more market opportunities and production capacity are needed. How can public policies help?

Assessing the economic implications of climate policies is essential for steering public action. Sig­nificant progress has been achieved in assessing the costs of mitigation, particularly with the publication in 2023 of the report on the economic implications of climate action. However, as the Cour des Comptes noted in its 2024 annual public report, numerous issues surrounding adaptation continue to emerge. Our recent work has nev­ertheless enabled us to draw five initial conclusions on the subject.

The recent election campaign in France didn’t give priority to the climate and environment. However, taking climate action is still widely supported by the French voters and most decision-makers. But a mandate to act is not enough. To make up for the current shortfall in climate investment, we need a solid consensus on the financial resources to be deployed to the climate transition in the long term. Today, these resources come partly from public budgets. And it is not a secret that the public contribution probably will have to increase in the future.

Ursula Von der Leyen’s competitiveness agenda is grabbing headlines - but the hard work of climate implementation and investment is only just beginning. In this blog, Ciaran Humphreys and Dorthe Nielsen outline the challenges this era of implementation poses, and how to align climate ambition with the President’s economic vision.  Ursula Von der Leyen has been re-elected as Commission President – and by a wider margin than expected. Before the vote, she set out her political priorities for the next EU mandate. Her vision focused on themes of security, economic competitiveness, and enlargement – unsurprisingly so at a time when the EU is increasingly concerned about its place in the world. 

France is facing a climate investment deficit relative to its climate objectives. Today, these investment are already putting a strain on public finances, whether in terms of investing in public facilities or co-financing projects by households and business. Increasing climate investments is therefore a challenge for public finances. But the scale of the challenge varies, depending on future policies. So what room for manoeuvre is there in terms of climate-related public spending needs?

Following the European elections on June 9, the EU is adapting to a new, more conservative, political reality. Yet despite changing political tides, a new EU leadership will still need to find a credible answer to how the continent is to reach climate neutrality by 2050. To understand how to get there, we need a clear understanding of the progress already made. This is where the European Climate Neutrality Observatory (ECNO) comes in.

Attention is growing to the need to tackle climate and social issues jointly. Indeed, both climate change and climate policies affect social issues such as poverty, inequality, or access to healthcare. A well-known example is that of carbon pricing, a climate policy which can have regressive effects in some contexts. As another example, climate change induced heatwaves are disproportionately likely to impact poorer individuals who typically have more constrained access to healthcare, physical jobs in outdoor conditions, and through indirectly driving up food prices. To foster an effective and sustainable transition to low-carbon and resilient economies, policymakers need to ensure individuals do not lose more from climate policies than they already lose from the effects of climate change, but instead benefit from them.

Options for Public Development Banks. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, several public development banks (PDBs) have responded with structured approaches to align their operations with the Agreement’s expectations (as described in Section 1). However, many PDBs, particularly those in emerging markets and developing economies, are yet to adopt an approach to align with the Paris Agreement (i.e., Paris alignment). As entities whose investment mandates are established by the Parties to the Paris Agreement (i.e., national governments), PDBs have specific obligations derived directly from these Parties’ commitments to act across all policy and regulatory frameworks under their jurisdictions, including for state-owned or state-mandated institutions and agencies. Accordingly, PDBs are expected to operate in a manner that supports the achievement of the Paris goals. More specifically, they are obligated to integrate their activities within the Agreement’s implementation mechanism by providing financial, technical, and capacity building support that is entirely consistent with national low-emission climate-resilient development pathways.

Assessing the state of progress to inform next steps in policy-making. The European Union (EU) is on its journey to become climate neutral by 2050. This multigenerational project holds many societal, economic, and environmental opportunities. At the same time, it is of unprecedented scale and implies considerable changes to the current systems, which need to be anticipated and addressed for the transition to be fair and acceptable to all. Regular progress checking is the key to understanding where the EU stands on the journey. It allows to identify challenges and opportunities and take targeted policy action guiding investment, supply, consumption, and societal development. There is still no official, comprehensive, and regular EU-wide progress monitoring to achieve this. This second ECNO progress check aims to close the current information gap. It provides a comprehensive view on the state of EU progress towards climate neutrality and identifies key areas of action for the next policy cycle.

Private financial institutions must rethink their approach to managing stranded asset risks. The current narrative on quantifying fossil fuel sector exposures within a limited scope of financial portfolios (mostly loans) largely underestimates potential stranding losses. As the low-carbon transition impacts all economic sectors, private financial institutions (FIs) must consider material transition-driven stranding risks within their overall transition risk management framework using a ‘whole of economy’ lens. Traditional risk management approaches are ill-suited to the methodological and quantification challenges of transition-driven stranding risks, so a flexible, dynamic, forward-looking approach is necessary. Strong, incentivising public policy coordinated with financial regulatory and supervisory impetus is necessary to preemptively identify, monitor and manage stranding losses on ‘assets-at-risk’ (i.e., potential stranded assets). The ECB finds that 40% of the total loan portfolio of euro area banks is exposed to energy-intensive sectors*, making them vulnerable to transition risks, including stranding. It is time for an urgent reframing of the stranded asset narrative to avoid significant financial losses (endangering financial stability) and direct orderly transition finance flows to retire or transform assets-at-risk before they become fully stranded.

The transition to a low-carbon France is not an easy one. It requires households to get involved and invest in the short term. This can fuel a rejection of the policies implementing the transition. Faced with this difficulty, should we turn back or look for a way forward that can gain a broader support? In Benoît Leguet's view, this is what is at stake in the campaign for the elections in France. Some political parties are putting forward proposals to help the middle and working classes make the transition. Others are tempted, whether they admit it or not, to reject any policy remotely associated with a low-carbon future. Let's be clear from the outset: the second path is a dead end, which the political parties should not embark upon.

Tense climate negotiations just ended in Bonn with limited progress on finance and the revised climate commitments under the Paris Agreement. During the opening ceremony of the sixtieth sessions of the subsidiary bodies (SB 60) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Simon Stiell –Executive Secretary– highlighted the need to “make serious progress on finance, the great enabler of climate action” and to aim for bolder, broader and inclusive third generation Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0) that “can serve as blueprints to propel economies and societies forward and drive more resilience”.

This weekend, citizens across the EU head to the polls. Many expect a swing to the right, in stark contrast to the “green wave” of 2019. In Brussels, leaders are looking ahead to a five-year mandate dominated by questions of security and competitiveness.  In these turbulent times, what is the future of Europe’s flagship climate package, the Green Deal? The Green Deal and the Fit for 55 package gave us the regulatory framework – but implementation requires investment. I4CE's flagship EU Climate Investment Deficit report shows that climate spending must double to make the 2030 target achievable.