Publications

The transition to a low-carbon France is not an easy one. It requires households to get involved and invest in the short term. This can fuel a rejection of the policies implementing the transition. Faced with this difficulty, should we turn back or look for a way forward that can gain a broader support? In Benoît Leguet's view, this is what is at stake in the campaign for the elections in France. Some political parties are putting forward proposals to help the middle and working classes make the transition. Others are tempted, whether they admit it or not, to reject any policy remotely associated with a low-carbon future. Let's be clear from the outset: the second path is a dead end, which the political parties should not embark upon.

The Global Stocktake at COP28 in Dubai marked the start of a cycle for reviewing governments’ decarbonization trajectories. The cycle will end at COP30 in Brazil at the end of 2025, and 2024 will hopefully show progress in the ambition of these trajectories. We equally hope that this renewed ambition will be accompanied by a reflection on the financing plans for national low-carbon trajectories, covering the amounts and evolution over time of domestic and international resources, and the respective roles of the private and public sectors. Because simply put, a low-carbon transition with no associated financing plan is not a transition, it is mere wishful thinking.

Let’s cut to the chase. Emmanuel Macron was wrong to drop a rhetorical bomb on Thursday, 11 May, when he called for a “regulatory pause” in environmental legislation. And that was a real shame because shortly after doing so, he said something important that went unnoticed by the analysts: Europe and France risk “being the best performers in terms of regulation, and the worst performers in terms of financing”.

While French local authorities have important levers for adaptation, they will only be able to mobilize them if certain conditions are met at national level: the entire effort cannot rest on their initiative alone. This is what this I4CE's Climate Report shows. There is an urgent need for a discussion on adaptation between the national government and subnational authorities.

2022 was an eventful year in terms of climate. The year saw the emergence of a new concept, that of the polycrisis: war in Ukraine, the aftereffects of Covid, the return of inflation, the gas crisis, agricultural shortages, persistent droughts and other dramatic climatic events... all of these crises have ultimately pointed to our direct or indirect dependence on fossil fuels; our weaknesses when faced with a changing climate; and the vulnerability of our economies and the middle and lower classes.

For a year, I4CE has been meeting with the campaign teams of the main presidential candidates to encourage them to prepare their climate program in order to reach the French objectives. In particular, we asked them to prepare their "climate budget": the State and more broadly the public authorities now play a decisive role in the necessary investments for the climate, and they must anticipate the considerable increase in these investments for France to achieve its 2030 objective. All the more now the European target has been raised. Preparing a climate budget is a mark of credibility and transparency, a test of consistency.

In France, the investments for the climate that will have to be made between now and 2030 to meet the objective are considerable. And since this target will have to be increased to contribute to the new European objective, the need for investment will also increase. Today, the State and public authorities are actively involved in climate-friendly investments. What will happen in the future? Who will pay, who will go into debt: the State, local authorities, taxpayers, households, companies or future generations?

The French National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC) aims at doubling the volume of CO2 removals thanks to the contribution of the forest-based sector, the agricultural sector and the geological carbon capture and storage technologies. The projections concerning these compartments and the underlying technical assumptions have been explored and compared to the existing literature in an in-depth analysis, with the goal of clarifying the challenges and conditions for this massive increase in carbon removals. The conclusions are that far-reaching changes are required in the different sectors and that some objectives for the forest-based sector may be impossible to achieve.

In this op-ed published in a French economic newspaper, Benoit Leguet, director of I4CE, considers that the French Government must plan over the long term the necessary financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation, by instituting a public finance programming law for climate. France has set itself climate objectives, it must clarify what means it will devote to them.

For too long climate change has remained confined to the green silos of our public institutions: it was onyl the business of Environment Ministries. The situation seems to have improved over the last ten years, but we are still a long way from “climate mainstreaming”. For Benoit Leguet, Director of I4CE, 2020 will offer multiple opportunities to test commitments, in France and internationally.