Framework for reading transition scenarios – Eight steps to interpret transition scenarios

This coming Monday will see the start of COP29 – formally the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in Baku, Azerbaijan. The edition is nicknamed “the finance COP” and is important on more than one account, not least as Trump’s victory likely leads to a change of course for the US on climate commitment.

The volume and structure of the finance mobilised to support developing countries to transition to low-emission and climate-resilient economies tops the agenda.

The ecological transition can only happen if all households have access to solutions – public transport, electric vehicles, home insulation, heating upgrades, etc. The issue of the access to transition solutions is therefore crucial for climate policies. Special attention should be paid to low- and middle-income households, as the necessary investments may not be sustainable for them. 

The implementation of the new banking package (or Capital Requirements Directive package) that adopts the final parts of the international Basel 3 financial regulation is underway in the European Union. The European Banking Authority (EBA) along with the other European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs) is mandated to develop technical standards that provide the framework to help financial institutions comply with the new regulatory rules. Key among these standards is the novel guidance on ESG risks which is expected to be finalised by the EBA in the coming months. This is an opportune moment to address weaknesses in banks’ risk management practices, particularly regarding the underestimation of stranded asset risks, a missing angle in current policy debates.