The economic implications of the transition to a low-carbon and resilient economy: an LTS dashboard for Finance Ministers

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into force on 1 January 2026. It is a carbon tax applied at the borders of the European Union to imports of certain industrial products covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Nitrogen-based mineral fertilisers are included in this initial list of products. To avoid an increase in costs for the farmers concerned, the level of the tax has been reduced for fertilisers, and they may even be temporarily excluded from the scope of the CBAM. Yet, for the climate, but also for France’s strategic independence and food sovereignty, the CBAM will ultimately have to be fully applied to mineral fertilisers. To limit or even avoid an increase in farmers’ fertiliser expenditure, we need public policies – some of which are currently under threat. Ring-fencing budgets for these policies would be a way to support farmers’ incomes and the food sovereignty of both the European Union and France, while reducing the carbon footprint of our food system. 

The year ahead promises to be electric. In a highly unpredictable geopolitical context, the European Union must balance its commitment to the long-term goals of climate neutrality and the immediate attention to security and competitiveness concerns. This puts electrification high on the agenda in Brussels. First, the Grids Package, presented in December 2025, provides for a more centralised approach to planning and is expected to be adopted by the Council in June. Second, before the summer, the Commission intends to present an Electrification Action Plan, which will focus on lowering prices and reinforcing demand. 

Cette étude s’inscrit dans la continuité des travaux d’I4CE engagés depuis plusieurs années sur la qualification et la quantification des besoins et des moyens pour l’adaptation en France. Elle propose une vision d’ensemble de ce que l’on peut dire à date sur ces aspects, basée sur le suivi et l’analyse d’une quinzaine de domaines d’action publique concernés par le changement climatique. Alors que l’adaptation est souvent un grand oublié des PLF, ce rapport apporte des éléments sur l’effort consenti aujourd’hui, les besoins identifiés pour demain et les modalités de répartition des coûts.